Photo: Santiago Arcos/Reuters
It is rare to encounter an election without accompanying complications. It seems to be in human nature to let egos and emotions commander campaigns, leading to intense rivalries, or eclipsed rancors. On February 7th, 2021, Ecuador began their newest elections after Lenin Moreno’s term. Moreno was the representative of the PAIS Alliance party, Ecuador’s social Democratic Party. Unlike the United State’s Electoral College system,Ecuador adopts a two-round election structure also known as the second ballot, runoff voting, or ballotage. For a candidate to be elected in the first round, they are required to either get 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10% ahead of their closets rival. If no candidate has at least 50% of the votes, the elections move on to the second round which would only host two most popular candidates. Finally, the candidate with the absolute majority after round two would be declared the winner of the election.
As Ecuador heads straight into an economic crisis, exasterbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the current election is putting citizens at the edge of their seat as they await the possible strengthening or demise of their economy. The country has had a complex relationship with democracy, as in 2017 former president Rafael Correa ended his 10-year presidency. Correa was a part of what is now known as Latin America’s “Pink Wave” which describes the continent’s overall trend to shift towards leftist governments. During his presidency, the Ecuadorean government absorbed many private companies, especially those involved in a banking scandal in the 1990s. He also invested greatly on healthcare and education, but all of these reforms started making neighboring countries wary of radical left ideologies making their way deeper into South America. In September 2008, Correa drafted a new constitution which expanded the president’s powers, a change that was approved by popular vote. Further connecting Correa to communist ideologies, he was strongly linked to then president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez. The Ecuadorian people continued to idolize him, and he was reelected on 2009. The government announced that this would mark his first term of presidency given that the previous one was not under the new constitution. The 2008 world economic crisis also had deep effects on the Ecuadorean economy, and Correa was forced to start restricting his government spending. This caused significant discontent amongst not only the public, but also governmental workers, and on September 30th, 2010, military and national police members started protesting against the budget cuts, which slashed their compensation. During these protests, Correa himself was injured by tear gas, leading him to create a new statute in the constitution that gave him the power to disband the National Assembly and rule by decree until the following legislative elections. His grip over Ecuador continued to tighten with the help of the Ecuadorean people as demonstrated by the largely successful referendum held on May 2011. There was an overwhelmingly positive response to the plebiscite, and because of this Correa was able to enact a process in which he had the power to veto the country’s judicial system and guide the National Assembly in regulating media content. Possibly one of his biggest international scandals took place in August 2021, when Ecuador granted political asylum to Julian Assange, the founder of Wiki Leaks. February 2013 came along and he won his third — though supposedly second— general election as he won over 58% of the popular vote. The beginning of Correa’s downfall can be traced to 2014, as it was revealed that Ecuador and China had been conducting undisclosed negotiations in exploring the oil deposits of the Yasuni National Park. What makes matters more obscure was that as these negotiations took place, Correa was also asking for $3.6 million in donations to prevent oil drilling in that same park. The conflict was brushed aside, though, as election officials dismissed the need for a national referendum. More frequently, newspapers and media outlets started speaking out on supposed oppression and silencing from the government. It seemed that crisis started surrounding Correa at his every turn, and this could be seen in his popularity index. Following the pattern enacted after the 2008 crisis, the Ecuadorean government was forced to reimplement budget cuts. In an act of audacious bravery, the National Assembly, which was widely known to be controlled by Correa’s PAIS political party, added 15 new amendments to the constitution, one of which removed presidential term limits. Although this meant that Correa could run again, he surprised the country by announcing that he would not pursue another term in the 2017 elections, yet he left the possibility for future campaigns open. As the election date sneaked closer, Correa supported a candidate would consequently become president, Lenin Moreno. Moreno was also his Vice President from 2007 to 2013. The election did not conclude without its conflicts, as Moreno’s main opponent accused him of “stealing the election.” The friendship between Moreno and Correa appeared to have run its course, given that Moreno began altering and reversing some of Correa’s legislations, beginning by promoting a new referendum that would once again limit an Ecuadorean presidency to two terms. Correa was infuriated by this policy, given that it would prevent him from running again. Nevertheless, he was trapped given that in 2018, Correa was accused of attempted kidnapping in 2012. Correa had a judge’s order to return to Ecuador — as he had moved to Belgium to be with his wife — after evidence arose of his aid in plotting to kidnap one of his political opponents. As if this was not enough, there were also allegations that he was involved in a bribery scheme and he was consequently found guilty to eight years in prison. Given that he refused to return to Ecuador, he was tried in absentia, yet he still denies all charges.
After a tumultuous democracy under Correa’s leadership, the country expected stability under Moreno, but he took power ready to shake up the status quo imposed by his predecessor. After reversing parts of Correa’s legislations, he set up the Consejo de Participacion Ciudadana y Control Social Transitorio, giving him the power to further alter the government’s structure and members. The CPCCS-T, was used by the new administration to change government officials, provincial judges, the judicial council, and the National Electoral Council, thus giving Moreno more control over the prevalent ideologies and perspectives in his administration. Although Correa was a strict social democrat, and Moreno had sold himself as such, he began adopting more conservative policies. Although he cut public spending and reduced taxes for large companies hence increasing private investment in the country, he did receive great backlash over his support of the oil drilling in Ecuador’s part of the Amazon rainforest. He also allowed the United States Military to use an airbase on the Galapagos Island, and the combination of these two decisions resulted in significant condemnation from environmental activists . Moreno drew further criticism from the media as the government failed to pass pro-choice legislations, continuing the country’s anti-abortion stance, putting females at danger of illegal abortion procedures and being complicit to this violation of women’s rights. Although Moreno received significant scrutiny over his handling of various reforms and legislations, the headline that shook the world took place on October 2nd, 2019 with protests that forced the government to move from Quito to Guayaquil given that authorities could no longer control the protestors. The protests sparked as a result of Moreno’s abolishment of fuel subsidies, meaning that the government would no longer aid the fuel industry in maintaining low fuel price, moving the product away from an affordable range price for citizens. Around 2,100 people were arrested and seven were killed in the span of 11 days, only ending when Moreno announced that he would reimplement the subsidies. Starting with an approval rate of 77% and ending with 7% by the end of 2019.
All of these events have led to the current elections, which have hosted various candidates since the beginning of the campaign process on April 11th, 2020, however, the first round of elections was on February 7th, 2021 and will culminate in the second round voting on April 11th, 2021. The two main candidates who have led in pole numbers are Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso. Arauz, supported by Correa got about 32.72% of the votes in the first round of elections. He represents the left as leader of the UNES party and was Minister of Knowledge and Human Talent during corrals presidency. Representing a more conservative stance is Guillermo Lasso, collecting around 20% of the votes, giving him a position in the second round of elections. A third and unexpected candidate has also shown strength in the polls, his name is Yaku Perez, an indigenous leader who has based his campaign on advocating for the protection of Ecuadorian highlands. Because of his leadership in the first round of elections, Andres Arauz already secured his spot in the April 11th elections, while his opponent is yet to be determined. The country is on the edge of their seat as it is still unclear which candidate will face Arauz in the second round. The results of the election should have been released following the immediate count of votes, but Perez and Lasso both requested a recount as only 33,000 votes separated them. Both Perez and Lasso agreed that 50% of the votes in all Ecuadorian provinces should be recounted, while 100% of the votes in Guayas should be recounted as well. The process extended itself due to the electoral council’s disagreement on whether to allow the recount, but four out of five members of the electoral council approved the results. Putting an end to the suspense gripping the nation, the request for recounting the votes was denied on February 17th, four days after it was solicited and ten days after the official election. Consequently, the council announced that Lasso won with 19.74% of the votes versus Yakuza’s Perez’s 19.39%. Unfortunately, this is far from the end of the process, as both candidates have to continue their campaigns up till the final round of elections in April, thus sealing Ecuador’s government for the next two terms. Ecuador has had a complex governmental history, as the country approaches fine lines between democracy and communism. However, the Ecuadorean citizens will have their opportunity to voice their perspectives and make themselves heard, hopefully resulting in a government that will kickstart the country’s economy after the devastating pandemic and give the citizens the representation they deserve.
Written By: Carolina Mejia Rodriguez
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